Bank holiday, macro data and US jobs

Investors’ main focus this week is likely to be on macro news, as PMI data is due across the globe, alongside the US’s non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

PMI data will be watched closely to give a read on whether a COVID-19 economic rebound is sustainable and has pushed into August.

Previous flash PMIs have been mixed with the US and UK reporting fast growth, and the Eurozone expansion losing pace. Japan’s was firmly stuck in contraction.

Markets will also be watching for developments on how seriously a second wave of the coronavirus could affect economies.

Here are some weekend stories to watch for developments in over the coming week:

The UK: Bank holidays, travel policy and economic support

It’s a short week for data in the UK due to the bank holiday. Photo: Getty

Monday is a bank holiday in the UK so Britons are in for a quiet start to the week, data-wise.

Markets will be watching for developments in the government’s coronavirus travel policy, which has so far cut short summer holidays and forced people into quarantine on their return from a number of destinations.

A number of coronavirus support schemes will also come into focus, as business leaders ask for concessions such as a longer stay on the payment of business rates.

A review of the companies in the FTSE 100 on Tuesday should bring into focus who some of the winners and losers have been of the pandemic.

There will also be speeches from several members of the Bank of England’s rate setting committee following the economic summit at Jackson Hole, including dispatches from governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Andy Haldane.

Key data to watch:

  • Tuesday: Markit / CIPS manufacturing PMI, August

  • Bank of England consumer credit, July

  • Wednesday: Housing prices

  • Composite PMI

Eurozone: Inflation and everything else

German factory orders will give the latest read on the economy. Photo: Getty

In Europe, alongside PMI data, are Eurozone inflation and unemployment numbers. Retail sales data is also on the slate.

German factory orders will give a measure on how Europe’s largest economy is faring.

Key data to watch:

  • Tuesday: Eurozone manufacturing PMI, August

  • Core CPI

  • Unemployment rate, July

  • Eurozone inflation rate

  • Thursday: Eurozone markit PMI

The US: Jobs, jobs, jobs

Key economic data in the US this week hinges on the numbers of jobs the US economy has added since the last jobless report. Photo: Getty

Key economic data in the US this week hinges on the numbers of jobs the US economy has added since the last jobless report.

At the height of the pandemic the US economy lost 22 million jobs, but as the reopening got underway through May and accelerated in June and July, 9.3 million of those jobs have since been clawed back. 

The uncertain jobs market, coupled with a rocky political landscape to get more support means analysts at ING think the US economic recovery is plateauing. They say: “It suggests that the level of spending has largely flatlined since June with the latest consumer confidence suggesting anxiety over rising Covid cases, the cuts to unemployment benefit payments and worries about employment prospects. 

US data to watch:

  • Tuesday: IHS Markit manufacturing PMI (final), August

  • ISM manufacturing index, August

  • Wednesday: ADP employment report, August

  • Factory orders

  • Thursday: Jobless claims

  • Trade balance, July

  • Friday: Unemployment rate

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